Wednesday 10 August 2022

Benchmark of estimated simulation in winning team in Women’s Euros 2022

Introduction

These example simulation incidents are based on an estimation of balance of probabilities (more likely than not). They are restricted to England as hosts, winners and team most fouled against. Other teams’ players also dived (like Germany’s Magull). There may be some overcounting during the later stages of each knockout match due to the broadcast director switching from replaying incidents (in slow motion from various angles) to showing crowd and bench shots, for whatever reason.

Incidents

England team simulation and related incidents estimated on balance of probabilities, Women's Euros 2022
Match Date Score at incident Player Match-time BBC iPlayer video Comment Referee decision Incident notes Area
England vs Austria (opening match where England as hosts get to set the tone) 2022-07-06 0–0 Mead 2:48 t=0h52m35s Robyn Cowen: “Beth Mead, trying to win back possession, wants the foul, doesn’t get it” No foul Dive? Own half.
1‒0 Daly 60:11 t=2h07m34s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
1‒0 Bronze 79:27 t=2h26m49s RC: “Lucy Bronze enjoying herself.” No caution Time-wasting Own half.
England vs Norway (Norway were one of the highest ranked teams going into the tournament) 2022-07-11 0‒0 White 9:44 t=0h25m34s Ian Wright (HT): “That’s never a penalty, for me.” Gabby Logan: “None of you thought was a penalty… Why not go to VAR?” Penalty to England Dive? Opponent's penalty box.
2‒0 White 21:33 t=0h37m23s Rachel Brown-Finnis: “Very, very clever; knows her role as a number 9” Free kick to England Feigning injury Own half.
4‒0 White 35:34 t=0h51m24s RC: “White has been unplayable at times, so clever” No foul Dive? Halfway line.
7‒0 Toone 73:40 t=1h46m59s   No foul Over-claiming? Opponent's penalty box.
England vs Northern Ireland (England had already qualified, Northern Ireland had already been knocked out, before the match had started) 2022-07-15 0‒0 Bronze 1:37 t=0h36m26s RC: “A bit of a delayed decision by the referee. Foul given. Kirsty McGuiness thought she was away, indicates she thought she got the ball there, Gail [Redmond].” Free kick to England Dive? Own half.
0‒0 Stanway 16:55 t=0h47m43s RC: “Stanway just lost her footing… White is appealing for something” RBF: “She’s been success before in her appeals.” RC: “Worth a try.” No foul Over-claiming? Opponent's penalty box.
0‒0 Mead 19:23 t=0h50m11s RC: “Mead nutmegs McKenna, can’t get past her.” RBF “Mead will want to rethink how she reacted. Nutmegged, a great bit of skill, but you’ve got to get past her, or at least try to get past her. Claiming for a foul: it’s not a foul, not obstruction.” No foul Over-claiming? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 Kirby 23:16 t=0h54m05s   No foul Dive? Own half.
0‒0 Mead 31:04 t=1h01m52s RC: “The referee gives a free kick to England in a good area.” RBF: “There’s not really anything in that at all. That’s not a foul.” Free kick to England Dive? Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
England vs Spain (quarter final) 2022-07-20 0‒0 Mead 8:22 t=0h38m23s RC: “Mead shut down.” Free kick to England Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 Mead 34:48 t=1h04m49s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 Mead 35:09 t=1h05m10s RBF: “Mead’s leaning into her, she feels something, try your luck.” Free kick to England 50-50/Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 Mead 45:26 t=1h32m28s   Free kick to England Over-claiming? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 Mead 51:26 t=1h38m30s   No foul Dive? Own half.
0‒1 Bronze 55:01 t=1h42m05s RC: “Bronze trying to force her way into a dangerous position.” No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒1 Kirkby 58:27 t=1h45m31s RBF: “a soft one” Free kick to England Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒1 Hemp 59:53 t=1h46m57s RBF: “contact, not a foul” RC: “VAR happy with her initial decision” Free kick to Spain Over-claiming? Opponent's penalty box.
0‒1 Russo 69:23 t=1h56m27s RC: “Russo caught, but throw-in to Spain.” No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒1 Daly 72:46 t=1h59m50s RC: “causing problems… for… Daly, with the nutmeg” No foul Dive? Own penalty box.
1‒1 Russo 88:45 t=2h15m49s RC: “towards Russo, who goes down… referee lets things go” RBF: “Nothing in it at all” No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
1‒1 Hemp 90+4:18 t=2h21m21s   Free kick to Spain Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
1‒1 Stanway 90:33 t=2h27m49s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
1‒1 Kelly 94:35 t=2h31m51s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
2‒1 Kelly 110:40 t=2h51m33s RBF: “Exactly what her team needed, to feel that contact… bought herself a bit of time” Free kick to England Dive? Own half.
2‒1 Various 113:30+ t=2h54m23s RBF: “very, very clever” Free kick to England Time-wasting  
2‒1 Kelly 118:11 t=2h59m06s RC: “Kelly goes down. Foul given. This is perfect game management from England.” Free kick to England Dive? Halfway line.
2‒1 Greenwood 118:36 t=2h59m31s RC: “Greenwood for time-wasting.” Booked. Time-wasting Halfway line.
2‒1 Greenwood 120+1:33 t=3h02m27s RC: “She knew the high boot was coming.” RBF: “But she knew it would buy her some time for her team as well… barely a touch on her, makes the most of it… clever play” Free kick to England Feigning injury Own half.
England vs Sweden (semi-final) 2022-07-26 0‒0 Stanway 0:10 t=0h35m20s RBF: “just hustled off the ball” No foul Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 Stanway 4:36 t=0h39m46s RC: "Stanway goes down.” RBF: “Earns that one, really. She’s already on her way down.” Free kick to England Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 White 6:06 t=0h41m15s   No foul Dive? Opponent's penalty box.
0‒0 Kirby 10:18 t=0h45m27s RC: “Kirby felt she was fouled. Nothing doing says the referee.” No foul Dive? Own half.
0‒0 Mead 11:03 t=0h46m12s RBF: “I’m not quite sure that was a foul, she was on her way down.” No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 Hemp 13:51 t=0h49m01s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 White 14:32 t=0h49m42s   No foul Dive? Opponent's penalty box.
0‒0 Stanway 15:57 t=0h51m06s   No foul Dive? Own half.
0‒0 Mead 18:02 t=0h53m11s RBF: “Both players’ eyes on the ball.” Free kick to England Over-claiming? Own half.
0‒0 Stanway 18:43 t=0h53m52s   Free kick to England Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 White 21:41 t=0h56m50s RBF: “White earning a clever foul there for her team.” Free kick to England Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 Stanway 26:55 t=1h02m05s RBF: “Didn’t make any contact with Angeldal.” Free kick to England Dive? Own penalty box.
0‒0 Stanway 27:51 t=1h03m00s   No foul Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 White 29:43 t=1h04m53s RC: "White in a tangle with Erikson. Looks pleadingly towards the assistant referee.” RBF: “They’ll know what to expect from one another.” No foul Dive? Halfway line.
1‒0 Bronze 36:53 t=1h12m02s RBF: "I'm not sure there was really too much in that.” No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
2‒0 Mead 49:26 t=1h40m05s   Free kick to England Dive? Halfway line.
2‒0 Daly 52:21 t=1h43m01s RC: “Wiegman with her hands outstretched, asking for the decision.” No foul Dive? Halfway line.
2‒0 White 53:43 t=1h44m23s RC: "White had thrown herself at that one.” No foul Dive? Opponent's penalty box.
2‒0 ? 56:34 t=1h47m14s   No foul Dive? Halfway line.
2‒0 Williamson 60:17 t=1h50m56s RC: “Well played… Williamson” Free kick to England Dive? Own half.
2‒0 Mead 61:19 t=1h51m59s   No foul Dive? Halfway line.
3‒0 Russo? 75:53 t=2h06m33s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
4‒0 Mead? 77:13 t=2h07m53s   Free kick to England Dive? Own half.
4‒0 Russo 82:59 t=2h13m38s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
4‒0 Bronze 83:11 t=2h13m51s   No foul Dive? Own half.
4‒0 ? 86:46 t=2h17m25s   Free kick to England Dive? Own half.
4‒0 Russo? 90+2:44 t=2h23m23s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
England vs Germany (final; England squad on a reported £55,000 win bonus each from Football Association) 2022-07-31 0‒0 Kirby 1:10 t=1h11m34s RC: "Kirby goes down, wants the decision, doesn’t get it.” No foul Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 Hemp 1:35 t=1h11m59s RC: “Hemp, challenged well by Hendrick, but this referee isn’t giving much” RBF: “that was the right decision, it was contact, nothing more than that” No foul  Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 Daly 4:15 t=1h14m39s RC: “Oberdorf went to ground, throw in is the decision.” No foul Dive? Halfway line.
0‒0 Mead 16:36 t=1h26m59s RC: "Mead taking a tumble.” RBF: “enough contact for… Mead to go down” Free kick to England Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
0‒0 Mead 30:55 t=1h41m19s RBF: “Good from… Mead there, just feeling the contact behind her.” Free kick to England Dive? Own half.
0‒0 Daly 34:51 t=1h45m15s RBF: “Daly… kicked the German player… should have been a foul to Germany” Free kick to England Over-claiming? Own half.
0‒0 Daly 49:52 t=2h17m14s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
1‒0 Kelly 78:15 t=2h45m37s RC: "Kelly goes down. Nothing doing from the referee.” No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
1‒1 Russo 90+1:26 t=2h58m47s RC: “Draws the foul.” Free kick to England Dive? Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
1‒1 Russo 90:33 t=3h07m02s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
1‒1 Bronze 91:07 t=3h07m36s   Free kick to England Dive? Own half.
1‒1 Russo 92:59 t=3h09m28s   No foul Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
2‒1 Various 112:00+ t=3h32m36s+ RC: “Hemp… coming off… walking as slowly as possible” etc   Time-wasting  
2‒1 Kelly 115:07 t=3h35m42s RC: “Foul won: exactly what was required.” Free kick to England Dive? Opponent’s half: wing.
2‒1 Bronze 120+0:10 t=3h40m45s RC: "Bronze goes down.” Free kick to England Feigning injury Opponent’s half: wing.

No comments:

Post a Comment