Bluebeard reduxed

Betty and Anne giggled as they read the descriptions of potential mates on their dating apps. They remembered their mother's advice not to meet anyone alone, or to travel beyond their own town, or to believe the stories of wealth or uniform pictures of good looks. "Well, I will not settle for less than a millionaire" said Betty. Then Anne said "Look, here is the only ugly picture, a man with a blue beard, and he lives in that huge house on the edge of town. Wait, I'll get an invitation for us both.".

Bluebeard turned out to be suave and sophisticated, and held great parties in his richly-furnished mansion, and if anyone ever expressed any doubts about him, it was that no-one knew what had happened to his previous wives. Betty was won over by a life of material abundance, and agreed marriage. Bluebeard claimed he was going on a business trip and handed over the security system's master card. "Do not go into the panic room in the basement, else you'll be sorry, but otherwise have the run of the place, invite your friends round!" he told her. When Betty swiped the card in the panic room door, she did not immediately notice the card's strip had changed colour, she was too busy discovering that her new husband's favourite hobby was dismembering wives. Foolishly confronting him when he returned from his fake business trip, Betty couldn't hide the altered card, and Bluebeard chided her: "You have had your part of the bargain, and now I will have mine". But when she begged for pity, her sister Anne in the next room heard her, texted their brothers, who arrived just in time to do Bluebeard in with baseball bats.

Benchmark of estimated simulation in winning team in Women’s Euros 2022

Introduction

These example simulation incidents are based on an estimation of balance of probabilities (more likely than not). They are restricted to England as hosts, winners and team most fouled against. Other teams’ players also dived (like Germany’s Magull). There may be some overcounting during the later stages of each knockout match due to the broadcast director switching from replaying incidents (in slow motion from various angles) to showing crowd and bench shots, for whatever reason.

Incidents

England team simulation and related incidents estimated on balance of probabilities, Women's Euros 2022

Match	Date	Score at incident	Player	Match-time	BBC iPlayer video	Comment	Referee decision	Incident notes	Area
England vs Austria (opening match where England as hosts get to set the tone)	2022-07-06	0–0	Mead	2:48	t=0h52m35s	Robyn Cowen: “Beth Mead, trying to win back possession, wants the foul, doesn’t get it”	No foul	Dive?	Own half.
		1‒0	Daly	60:11	t=2h07m34s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		1‒0	Bronze	79:27	t=2h26m49s	RC: “Lucy Bronze enjoying herself.”	No caution	Time-wasting	Own half.
England vs Norway (Norway were one of the highest ranked teams going into the tournament)	2022-07-11	0‒0	White	9:44	t=0h25m34s	Ian Wright (HT): “That’s never a penalty, for me.” Gabby Logan: “None of you thought was a penalty… Why not go to VAR?”	Penalty to England	Dive?	Opponent's penalty box.
		2‒0	White	21:33	t=0h37m23s	Rachel Brown-Finnis: “Very, very clever; knows her role as a number 9”	Free kick to England	Feigning injury	Own half.
		4‒0	White	35:34	t=0h51m24s	RC: “White has been unplayable at times, so clever”	No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		7‒0	Toone	73:40	t=1h46m59s		No foul	Over-claiming?	Opponent's penalty box.
England vs Northern Ireland (England had already qualified, Northern Ireland had already been knocked out, before the match had started)	2022-07-15	0‒0	Bronze	1:37	t=0h36m26s	RC: “A bit of a delayed decision by the referee. Foul given. Kirsty McGuiness thought she was away, indicates she thought she got the ball there, Gail [Redmond].”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Own half.
		0‒0	Stanway	16:55	t=0h47m43s	RC: “Stanway just lost her footing… White is appealing for something” RBF: “She’s been success before in her appeals.” RC: “Worth a try.”	No foul	Over-claiming?	Opponent's penalty box.
		0‒0	Mead	19:23	t=0h50m11s	RC: “Mead nutmegs McKenna, can’t get past her.” RBF “Mead will want to rethink how she reacted. Nutmegged, a great bit of skill, but you’ve got to get past her, or at least try to get past her. Claiming for a foul: it’s not a foul, not obstruction.”	No foul	Over-claiming?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	Kirby	23:16	t=0h54m05s		No foul	Dive?	Own half.
		0‒0	Mead	31:04	t=1h01m52s	RC: “The referee gives a free kick to England in a good area.” RBF: “There’s not really anything in that at all. That’s not a foul.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
England vs Spain (quarter final)	2022-07-20	0‒0	Mead	8:22	t=0h38m23s	RC: “Mead shut down.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	Mead	34:48	t=1h04m49s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	Mead	35:09	t=1h05m10s	RBF: “Mead’s leaning into her, she feels something, try your luck.”	Free kick to England	50-50/Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	Mead	45:26	t=1h32m28s		Free kick to England	Over-claiming?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	Mead	51:26	t=1h38m30s		No foul	Dive?	Own half.
		0‒1	Bronze	55:01	t=1h42m05s	RC: “Bronze trying to force her way into a dangerous position.”	No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒1	Kirkby	58:27	t=1h45m31s	RBF: “a soft one”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒1	Hemp	59:53	t=1h46m57s	RBF: “contact, not a foul” RC: “VAR happy with her initial decision”	Free kick to Spain	Over-claiming?	Opponent's penalty box.
		0‒1	Russo	69:23	t=1h56m27s	RC: “Russo caught, but throw-in to Spain.”	No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒1	Daly	72:46	t=1h59m50s	RC: “causing problems… for… Daly, with the nutmeg”	No foul	Dive?	Own penalty box.
		1‒1	Russo	88:45	t=2h15m49s	RC: “towards Russo, who goes down… referee lets things go” RBF: “Nothing in it at all”	No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
		1‒1	Hemp	90+4:18	t=2h21m21s		Free kick to Spain	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		1‒1	Stanway	90:33	t=2h27m49s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		1‒1	Kelly	94:35	t=2h31m51s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		2‒1	Kelly	110:40	t=2h51m33s	RBF: “Exactly what her team needed, to feel that contact… bought herself a bit of time”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Own half.
		2‒1	Various	113:30+	t=2h54m23s	RBF: “very, very clever”	Free kick to England	Time-wasting
		2‒1	Kelly	118:11	t=2h59m06s	RC: “Kelly goes down. Foul given. This is perfect game management from England.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Halfway line.
		2‒1	Greenwood	118:36	t=2h59m31s	RC: “Greenwood for time-wasting.”	Booked.	Time-wasting	Halfway line.
		2‒1	Greenwood	120+1:33	t=3h02m27s	RC: “She knew the high boot was coming.” RBF: “But she knew it would buy her some time for her team as well… barely a touch on her, makes the most of it… clever play”	Free kick to England	Feigning injury	Own half.
England vs Sweden (semi-final)	2022-07-26	0‒0	Stanway	0:10	t=0h35m20s	RBF: “just hustled off the ball”	No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	Stanway	4:36	t=0h39m46s	RC: "Stanway goes down.” RBF: “Earns that one, really. She’s already on her way down.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	White	6:06	t=0h41m15s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent's penalty box.
		0‒0	Kirby	10:18	t=0h45m27s	RC: “Kirby felt she was fouled. Nothing doing says the referee.”	No foul	Dive?	Own half.
		0‒0	Mead	11:03	t=0h46m12s	RBF: “I’m not quite sure that was a foul, she was on her way down.”	No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	Hemp	13:51	t=0h49m01s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	White	14:32	t=0h49m42s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent's penalty box.
		0‒0	Stanway	15:57	t=0h51m06s		No foul	Dive?	Own half.
		0‒0	Mead	18:02	t=0h53m11s	RBF: “Both players’ eyes on the ball.”	Free kick to England	Over-claiming?	Own half.
		0‒0	Stanway	18:43	t=0h53m52s		Free kick to England	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	White	21:41	t=0h56m50s	RBF: “White earning a clever foul there for her team.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	Stanway	26:55	t=1h02m05s	RBF: “Didn’t make any contact with Angeldal.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Own penalty box.
		0‒0	Stanway	27:51	t=1h03m00s		No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	White	29:43	t=1h04m53s	RC: "White in a tangle with Erikson. Looks pleadingly towards the assistant referee.” RBF: “They’ll know what to expect from one another.”	No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		1‒0	Bronze	36:53	t=1h12m02s	RBF: "I'm not sure there was really too much in that.”	No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		2‒0	Mead	49:26	t=1h40m05s		Free kick to England	Dive?	Halfway line.
		2‒0	Daly	52:21	t=1h43m01s	RC: “Wiegman with her hands outstretched, asking for the decision.”	No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		2‒0	White	53:43	t=1h44m23s	RC: "White had thrown herself at that one.”	No foul	Dive?	Opponent's penalty box.
		2‒0	?	56:34	t=1h47m14s		No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		2‒0	Williamson	60:17	t=1h50m56s	RC: “Well played… Williamson”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Own half.
		2‒0	Mead	61:19	t=1h51m59s		No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		3‒0	Russo?	75:53	t=2h06m33s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		4‒0	Mead?	77:13	t=2h07m53s		Free kick to England	Dive?	Own half.
		4‒0	Russo	82:59	t=2h13m38s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		4‒0	Bronze	83:11	t=2h13m51s		No foul	Dive?	Own half.
		4‒0	?	86:46	t=2h17m25s		Free kick to England	Dive?	Own half.
		4‒0	Russo?	90+2:44	t=2h23m23s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
England vs Germany (final; England squad on a reported £55,000 win bonus each from Football Association)	2022-07-31	0‒0	Kirby	1:10	t=1h11m34s	RC: "Kirby goes down, wants the decision, doesn’t get it.”	No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	Hemp	1:35	t=1h11m59s	RC: “Hemp, challenged well by Hendrick, but this referee isn’t giving much” RBF: “that was the right decision, it was contact, nothing more than that”	No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	Daly	4:15	t=1h14m39s	RC: “Oberdorf went to ground, throw in is the decision.”	No foul	Dive?	Halfway line.
		0‒0	Mead	16:36	t=1h26m59s	RC: "Mead taking a tumble.” RBF: “enough contact for… Mead to go down”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		0‒0	Mead	30:55	t=1h41m19s	RBF: “Good from… Mead there, just feeling the contact behind her.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Own half.
		0‒0	Daly	34:51	t=1h45m15s	RBF: “Daly… kicked the German player… should have been a foul to Germany”	Free kick to England	Over-claiming?	Own half.
		0‒0	Daly	49:52	t=2h17m14s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		1‒0	Kelly	78:15	t=2h45m37s	RC: "Kelly goes down. Nothing doing from the referee.”	No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		1‒1	Russo	90+1:26	t=2h58m47s	RC: “Draws the foul.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
		1‒1	Russo	90:33	t=3h07m02s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: in front of goal.
		1‒1	Bronze	91:07	t=3h07m36s		Free kick to England	Dive?	Own half.
		1‒1	Russo	92:59	t=3h09m28s		No foul	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		2‒1	Various	112:00+	t=3h32m36s+	RC: “Hemp… coming off… walking as slowly as possible” etc		Time-wasting
		2‒1	Kelly	115:07	t=3h35m42s	RC: “Foul won: exactly what was required.”	Free kick to England	Dive?	Opponent’s half: wing.
		2‒1	Bronze	120+0:10	t=3h40m45s	RC: "Bronze goes down.”	Free kick to England	Feigning injury	Opponent’s half: wing.